An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data.

Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41-26.8]), whereas 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88-22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10-5 ; 2-year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.

Un sistema basado en conocimiento experto para predecir la tasa de supervivencia a partir de datos de salud Resumen La detección y el entendimiento oportunos de la declinación poblacional son esenciales para que el manejo y la conservación de fauna tengan efectividad. La evaluación de las tendencias en el tamaño poblacional ha sido la estrategia estándar, pero proponemos que el monitoreo de la salud poblacional podría ser más efectivo. Recopilamos datos de siete poblaciones de delfines (Tursiops truncatus) en el sureste de Estados Unidos para desarrollar un método de estimación de la probabilidad de supervivencia con base en un conjunto de medidas sanitarias identificadas por expertos como índices para los sistemas inflamatorio, metabólico, pulmonar y neuroendocrino. Usamos la regresión logística para implementar el sistema de expertos veterinarios para la predicción de resultados (SEVPR) en un análisis bayesiano. Ajustamos los parámetros con los registros de cinco sitios que contaban con una buena red de respondientes a los varamientos de mamíferos marinos y censos de identificación fotográfica (foto-ID) que documentaron los resultados de supervivencia definitivos. También realizamos análisis de marcaje-recaptura (MR) en los datos de identificación fotográfica para obtener estimados separados de las tasas de supervivencia poblacional para compararlos con los estimados del SEVPR. Los análisis del SEVPR mostraron que varias medidas sanitarias, particularmente los marcadores de inflamación son buenos predictores de la supervivencia individual para uno y dos años. El riesgo de mortalidad más alto un año después de la valoración sanitaria se relacionó con una fosfatasa alcalina baja (cociente de probabilidades de 10.2 [95% CI 3.41-26.8]), mientras que la mortalidad a los dos años estuvo más influenciada por una globulina elevada (9.60 [95% CI 3.88-22.4]); ambas son marcadores de la inflamación. El modelo del SEVPR predijo las tasas de supervivencia a nivel poblacional en correlación con las tasas estimadas de supervivencia de los análisis de MR para las mismas poblaciones (Pearson de un año r = 0.99, p = 1.52e-05; dos años r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Aunque nuestra propuesta no detecta las amenazas agudas de mortalidad que en su mayoría son independientes de la salud animal, como la proliferación de algas nocivas, puede usarse para detectar las condiciones crónicas de salud que incrementan el riesgo de mortalidad. Es importante el muestreo aleatorio de la población y los avances en los métodos de muestreo remoto podrían facilitar una selección más aleatoria de los sujetos, la obtención de muestras de mayor tamaño y la expansión de la estrategia a otras especies de fauna.

Using Blood Gas Analysis and Capnography to Determine Oxygenation Status in Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in 2010, poor pulmonary health and reproductive failure in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico were well-documented. One postulated etiology for the increased fetal distress syndrome and pneumonia found in affected perinatal dolphins was maternal hypoxia caused by lung disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the utility of blood gas analysis and capnography in determining oxygenation status in bottlenose dolphins with and without pulmonary disease. Blood and breath samples were collected from 59 free-ranging dolphins in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (BB), during a capture-release health assessment program, and from 30 managed dolphins from the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program in San Diego, CA. The former was the oil-exposed cohort and the latter served as a control cohort with known health histories. Capnography and select blood gas parameters were compared based on the following factors: cohort, sex, age/length class, reproductive status, and severity of pulmonary disease. Animals with moderate-severe lung disease had higher bicarbonate concentrations (p = 0.005), pH (p < 0.001), TCO2 (p = 0.012), and more positive base excess (p = 0.001) than animals with normal-mild disease. Capnography (ETCO2) was found to have a weak positive correlation with blood PCO2 (p = 0.020), with a mean difference of 5.02 mmHg (p < 0.001). Based on these findings, indirect oxygenation measures, including TCO2, bicarbonate, and pH, show promise in establishing the oxygenation status in dolphins with and without pulmonary disease.

Transcriptome profiling of blood from common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico to enhance health assessment capabilities.

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster and subsequent unusual mortality event, adverse health impacts have been reported in bottlenose dolphins in Barataria Bay, LA including impaired stress response and reproductive, pulmonary, cardiac, and immune function. These conditions were primarily diagnosed through hands-on veterinary examinations and analysis of standard diagnostic panels. In human and veterinary medicine, gene expression profiling has been used to identify molecular mechanisms underlying toxic responses and disease states. Identification of molecular markers of exposure or disease may enable earlier detection of health effects or allow for health evaluation when the use of specialized methodologies is not feasible. To date this powerful tool has not been applied to augment the veterinary data collected concurrently during dolphin health assessments. This study examined transcriptomic profiles of blood from 76 dolphins sampled in health assessments during 2013-2018 in the waters near Barataria Bay, LA and Sarasota Bay, FL. Gene expression was analyzed in conjunction with the substantial suite of health data collected using principal component analysis, differential expression testing, over-representation analysis, and weighted gene co-expression network analysis. Broadly, transcript profiles of Barataria Bay dolphins indicated a shift in immune response, cytoskeletal alterations, and mitochondrial dysfunction, most pronounced in dolphins likely exposed to Deepwater Horizon oiling. While gene expression profiles in Barataria Bay dolphins were altered compared to Sarasota Bay for all years, profiles from 2013 exhibited the greatest alteration in gene expression. Differentially expressed transcripts included genes involved in immunity, inflammation, reproductive failure, and lung or cardiac dysfunction, all of which have been documented in dolphins from Barataria Bay following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The genes and pathways identified in this study may, with additional research and validation, prove useful as molecular markers of exposure or disease to assist wildlife veterinarians in evaluating the health of dolphins and other cetaceans.

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species.

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14-74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18-67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607-94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins' survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.

El derrame de petróleo Deepwater Horizon (DWH) en 2010 expuso gravemente a este hidrocarburo a los delfines (Tursiops truncatus) de la Bahía Barataria, Luisiana, causando un incremento en la mortalidad y en las enfermedades crónicas, y deteriorando la reproducción de los delfines sobrevivientes. Realizamos censos fotográficos y evaluaciones veterinarias durante la década posterior al derrame. Asignamos un puntaje pronóstico (bueno, favorable, moderado, malo, o grave) a cada delfín para proporcionar un indicador integrado único de la salud en general. También examinamos las tendencias temporales de estos puntajes. Usamos información de expertos para cuantificar las implicaciones de las tendencias para la proporción de delfines que se recuperaría dentro de su periodo de vida. Integramos esta información, junto con información nueva, a un modelo de dinámica poblacional para predecir los efectos sobre la demografía de las tendencias observadas en la salud. Comparamos la trayectoria poblacional resultante con aquella pronosticada bajo condiciones de línea base (sin derrame). Las condiciones de enfermedad persistieron y recientemente han empeorado en los delfines que supuestamente estuvieron expuestos al petróleo de DWH: 78% de aquellos evaluados en 2018 tuvieron un pronóstico moderado, malo o grave. Los delfines que nacieron después del derrame contaron con mejor salud. Estimamos que la población declinó en un 45% (95% CI 14-74) relativo a la línea base y tardará 35 años (95% CI 18-67) en recuperar el 95% de los números de línea base. La suma de las diferencias anuales entre el tamaño poblacional de línea base y el dañado (es decir, los años cetáceos perdidos) fue de 30,993 (95% CI 6,607-94,148). La población actualmente está en un punto mínimo de su trayectoria de recuperación y es vulnerable a las amenazas emergentes, incluyendo los esfuerzos de restauración ambiental planeada que probablemente sean nocivos para la supervivencia de los delfines. Nuestro marco de modelado demuestra una estrategia para la integración de diferentes fuentes y tipos de datos, resalta la utilidad de la información de expertos para los parámetros de aportación indeterminable, y enfatiza la importancia de la consideración y el monitoreo de la salud a largo plazo de las especies longevas sujetas a los desastres ambientales. Modelado de los Efectos Poblacionales del Derrame de Petróleo Deepwater Horizon sobre Especies Longevas.

A review of the toxicology of oil in vertebrates: what we have learned following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

In the wake of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, a number of government agencies, academic institutions, consultants, and nonprofit organizations conducted lab- and field-based research to understand the toxic effects of the oil. Lab testing was performed with a variety of fish, birds, turtles, and vertebrate cell lines (as well as invertebrates); field biologists conducted observations on fish, birds, turtles, and marine mammals; and epidemiologists carried out observational studies in humans. Eight years after the spill, scientists and resource managers held a workshop to summarize the similarities and differences in the effects of DWH oil on vertebrate taxa and to identify remaining gaps in our understanding of oil toxicity in wildlife and humans, building upon the cross-taxonomic synthesis initiated during the Natural Resource Damage Assessment. Across the studies, consistency was found in the types of toxic response observed in the different organisms. Impairment of stress responses and adrenal gland function, cardiotoxicity, immune system dysfunction, disruption of blood cells and their function, effects on locomotion, and oxidative damage were observed across taxa. This consistency suggests conservation in the mechanisms of action and disease pathogenesis. From a toxicological perspective, a logical progression of impacts was noted: from molecular and cellular effects that manifest as organ dysfunction, to systemic effects that compromise fitness, growth, reproductive potential, and survival. From a clinical perspective, adverse health effects from DWH oil spill exposure formed a suite of signs/symptomatic responses that at the highest doses/concentrations resulted in multi-organ system failure.

High site-fidelity in common bottlenose dolphins despite low salinity exposure and associated indicators of compromised health.

More than 2,000 common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit the Barataria Bay Estuarine System in Louisiana, USA, a highly productive estuary with variable salinity driven by natural and man-made processes. It was unclear whether dolphins that are long-term residents to specific areas within the basin move in response to fluctuations in salinity, which at times can decline to 0 parts per thousand in portions of the basin. In June 2017, we conducted health assessments and deployed satellite telemetry tags on dolphins in the northern portions of the Barataria Bay Estuarine System Stock area (9 females; 4 males). We analyzed their fine-scale movements relative to modeled salinity trends compared to dolphins tagged near the barrier islands (higher salinity environments) from 2011 to 2017 (37 females; 21 males). Even though we observed different movement patterns among individual dolphins, we found no evidence that tagged dolphins moved coincident with changes in salinity. One tagged dolphin spent at least 35 consecutive days, and 75 days in total, in salinity under 5 parts per thousand. Health assessments took place early in a seasonal period of decreased salinity. Nonetheless, we found an increased prevalence of skin lesions, as well as abnormalities in serum biochemical markers and urine:serum osmolality ratios for dolphins sampled in lower salinity areas. This study provides essential information on the likely behavioral responses of dolphins to changes in salinity (e.g., severe storms or from the proposed Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion project) and on physiological markers to inform the timing and severity of impacts from low salinity exposure.

REVIEW: Assessing North Atlantic right whale health: threats, and development of tools critical for conservation of the species.

Whaling has decimated North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis (NARW) since the 11th century and southern right whales E. australis (SRW) since the 19th century. Today, NARWs are Critically Endangered and decreasing, whereas SRWs are recovering. We review NARW health assessment literature, NARW Consortium databases, and efforts and limitations to monitor individual and species health, survival, and fecundity. Photographs are used to track individual movement and external signs of health such as evidence of vessel and entanglement trauma. Post-mortem examinations establish cause of death and determine organ pathology. Photogrammetry is used to assess growth rates and body condition. Samples of blow, skin, blubber, baleen and feces quantify hormones that provide information on stress, reproduction, and nutrition, identify microbiome changes, and assess evidence of infection. We also discuss models of the population consequences of multiple stressors, including the connection between human activities (e.g. entanglement) and health. Lethal and sublethal vessel and entanglement trauma have been identified as major threats to the species. There is a clear and immediate need for expanding trauma reduction measures. Beyond these major concerns, further study is needed to evaluate the impact of other stressors, such as pathogens, microbiome changes, and algal and industrial toxins, on NARW reproductive success and health. Current and new health assessment tools should be developed and used to monitor the effectiveness of management measures and will help determine whether they are sufficient for a substantive species recovery.

Linking morbillivirus exposure to individual habitat use of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) between geographically different sites.

Dolphin morbillivirus (DMV) is a virulent pathogen that causes high mortality outbreaks in delphinids globally and is spread via contact among individuals. Broadly ranging nearshore and open-ocean delphinids are likely reservoir populations that transmit DMV to estuarine populations. We assessed the seroprevalence of DMV antibodies and determined the habitat use of common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus truncatus, from two estuarine sites, Barataria Bay and Mississippi Sound, in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We predicted that risk to DMV exposure in estuarine dolphins is driven by spatial overlap in habitat use with reservoir populations. Serum was collected from live-captured dolphins and tested for DMV antibodies. Habitat use of sampled individuals was determined by analysing satellite-tracked movements and stable isotope values. DMV seroprevalences were high among dolphins at Barataria Bay (37%) and Mississippi Sound (44%), but varied differently within sites. Ranging patterns of Barataria Bay dolphins were categorized into two groups: Interior and Island-associated. DMV seroprevalences were absent in Interior dolphins (0%) but high in Island-associated dolphins (45%). Ranging patterns of Mississippi Sound dolphins were categorized into three groups: Interior, Island-east and Island-west. DMV seroprevalences were detected across Mississippi Sound (Interior: 60%; Island-east: 20%; and Island-west: 43%). At both sites, dolphins in habitats with greater marine influence had enriched δ13 C values, and Barataria Bay dolphins with positive DMV titres had carbon isotope values indicative of marine habitats. Positive titres for DMV antibodies were more common in the lower versus upper parts of Barataria Bay but evenly distributed across Mississippi Sound. A dolphin's risk of exposure to DMV is influenced by how individual ranging patterns interact with environmental geography. Barataria Bay's partially enclosed geography likely limits the nearshore or open-ocean delphinids that carry DMV from interacting with dolphins that use interior, estuarine habitats, decreasing their exposure to DMV. Mississippi Sound's relatively open geography allows for greater spatial overlap and mixing among estuarine, nearshore and/or open-ocean cetaceans. The spread of DMV, and likely other diseases, is affected by the combination of individual movements, habitat use and the environment.

Clinical signs and mortality of non-released stranded California sea lions housed in display facilities: the suspected role of prior exposure to algal toxins.

Stranded California sea lions considered unable to survive in the wild are often placed in public display facilities. Exposure to the biotoxin domoic acid (DA) is a common cause of stranding, and chronic effects are observed long after initial exposure. Medical records for 171 sea lions placed in US institutions between 2000 and 2016 were reviewed, including results from clinical examinations, histopathology, behavioural testing and advanced imaging. There was a statistically significant increase in neurological disease detected in neonates (24%) compared with other age classes (11%). Sixty per cent of all neurological cases died during the study period. In the 11 neurological neonate cases, six died (55%) and five are still alive with three of five developing epilepsy during placement. Of the six neurological neonate cases that died, one was attributed to DA toxicosis, one to seizures and four to acute unexplained neurological disease. This survey suggests delayed neurological disease can develop in sea lions after stranding as neonates. These data coupled with stranding records and epidemiological data on DA-producing algal blooms suggest further research into effects of neonatal exposure to DA on risk of neurological disease in later life is warranted. California sea lions offer a natural model of DA exposure to study such effects.

Health Assessments of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus): Past, Present, and Potential Conservation Applications.

The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is a global marine mammal species for which some populations, due to their coastal accessibility, have been monitored diligently by scientists for decades. Health assessment examinations have developed a comprehensive knowledge base of dolphin biology, population structure, and environmental or anthropogenic stressors affecting their dynamics. Bottlenose dolphin health assessments initially started as stock assessments prior to acquisition. Over the last four decades, health assessments have evolved into essential conservation management tools of free-ranging dolphin populations. Baseline data enable comparison of stressors between geographic locations and associated changes in individual and population health status. In addition, long-term monitoring provides opportunities for insights into population shifts over time, with retrospective application of novel diagnostic tests on archived samples. Expanding scientific knowledge enables effective long-term conservation management strategies by facilitating informed decision making and improving social understanding of the anthropogenic effects. The ability to use bottlenose dolphins as a model for studying marine mammal health has been pivotal in our understanding of anthropogenic effects on multiple marine mammal species. Future studies aim to build on current knowledge to influence management decisions and species conservation. This paper reviews the historical approaches to dolphin health assessments, present day achievements, and development of future conservation goals.

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in blood and blubber of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) at three northern Gulf of Mexico sites following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), including those impacted by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, inhabit the coastal and estuarine waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). In response to the spill, dolphin health assessments conducted in Barataria Bay, Louisiana - a site that experienced heavy and prolonged oiling - uncovered a high prevalence of health abnormalities and individuals in poor body condition. Although the health effects observed were suggestive of petroleum toxicity, a lack of pre-spill information regarding dolphin health raises the possibility that other environmental factors may have contributed to the adverse health of dolphins in this oil-impacted area. To assess how exposure to other environmental pollutants may affect the health of northern GoM dolphin populations impacted by the DWH oil spill, a suite of 69 persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including PCBs, PBDEs and organochlorine pesticides, was determined in blood and a subset of blubber samples collected during health assessments of 145 bottlenose dolphins at three GoM sites: two oil impacted sites - Barataria Bay, LA (BB), and Mississippi Sound, MS (MS) and an unimpacted reference site - Sarasota Bay, FL (SB). Overall, levels of POPs at all three sites appeared comparable or lower than concentrations previously reported for coastal bottlenose dolphin populations outside of the northern GoM. POP levels measured in BB dolphins were also comparable or lower than those measured at the unimpacted reference site (SB) within the northern GoM. Additionally, the relationship between blubber and blood contaminant levels in a smaller subset of BB and SB suggests that BB animals were not experiencing elevated blood-contaminant concentrations as a result of their poor body condition. Cumulatively, these results suggest that background levels of POPs measured are unlikely to produce the health abnormalities previously reported for BB dolphins.

Fetal distress and in utero pneumonia in perinatal dolphins during the Northern Gulf of Mexico unusual mortality event.

An unusual mortality event (UME) involving primarily common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus of all size classes stranding along coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, USA, started in early 2010 and continued into 2014. During this northern Gulf of Mexico UME, a distinct cluster of perinatal dolphins (total body length <115 cm) stranded in Mississippi and Alabama during 2011. The proportion of annual dolphin strandings that were perinates between 2009 and 2013 were compared to baseline strandings (2000-2005). A case-reference study was conducted to compare demographics, histologic lesions, and Brucella sp. infection prevalence in 69 UME perinatal dolphins to findings from 26 reference perinates stranded in South Carolina and Florida outside of the UME area. Compared to reference perinates, UME perinates were more likely to have died in utero or very soon after birth (presence of atelectasis in 88 vs. 15%, p < 0.0001), have fetal distress (87 vs. 27%, p < 0.0001), and have pneumonia not associated with lungworm infection (65 vs. 19%, p = 0.0001). The percentage of perinates with Brucella sp. infections identified via lung PCR was higher among UME perinates stranding in Mississippi and Alabama compared to reference perinates (61 vs. 24%, p = 0.01), and multiple different Brucella omp genetic sequences were identified in UME perinates. These results support that from 2011 to 2013, during the northern Gulf of Mexico UME, bottlenose dolphins were particularly susceptible to late-term pregnancy failures and development of in utero infections including brucellosis.

Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013-2014.

Morbilliviruses cause major mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics of transmission and persistence are ill understood compared to terrestrial counterparts such as measles; this is especially true for epidemics in cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean can provide new insights into the epidemiology and spatio-temporal spread of this pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding the ecology of this system (only stranded animals were observed), we develop a statistical framework that can extract key information about the underlying transmission process given only sparse data. Our self-exciting Poisson process model suggests that individuals are infectious for at most 24 days and can transfer infection up to two latitude degrees (220 km) within this time. In addition, the effective reproduction number is generally below one, but reaches 2.6 during a period of heightened stranding numbers near Virginia Beach, Virginia, in summer 2013. Network analysis suggests local movements dominate spatial spread, with seasonal migration facilitating wider dissemination along the coast. Finally, a low virus transmission rate or high levels of pre-existing immunity can explain the lack of viral spread into the Gulf of Mexico. More generally, our approach illustrates novel methodologies for analysing very indirectly observed epidemics.

A Systematic Review of Changes in Marine Mammal Health in North America, 1972-2012: The Need for a Novel Integrated Approach.

Marine mammals are often cited as "sentinels of ocean health" yet accessible, synthesized data on their health changes that could effectively warn of ocean health changes are rare. The objectives of this study were to 1) perform a systematic review of published cases of marine mammal disease to determine spatial and temporal trends in disease from 1972-2012, including changes in regions and taxa affected and specific causes; and 2) compare numbers of published cases of neoplasia with known, hospital-based neoplasia records to explore the causes of discrepancy between numbers of published cases and true disease trends. Peer-reviewed literature was compiled, and data were collected from The Marine Mammal Center database in Sausalito, California for comparison of numbers of neoplasia cases. Toxicoses from harmful algal blooms appear to be increasing. Viral epidemics are most common along the Atlantic U.S. coastline, while bacterial epidemics, especially leptospirosis, are most common along the Pacific coast. Certain protozoal and fungal zoonoses appear to be emerging, such as Toxoplasma gondii in southern sea otters in California, and Cryptococcus gattii in cetaceans in the Pacific Northwest. Disease reports were most common from California where pinniped populations are large, but increased effort also occurs. Anthropogenic trauma remains a large threat to marine mammal health, through direct mortality and indirect chronic disease. Neoplasia cases were under-reported from 2003-2012 when compared to true number of cases, and over-reported in several years due to case duplication. Peer-reviewed literature greatly underestimates the true magnitude of disease in marine mammals as it focuses on novel findings, fails to reflect etiology of multifactorial diseases, rarely reports prevalence rather than simple numbers of cases, and is typically presented years after a disease first occurs. Thus literature cannot guide management actions adequately, nor inform indices of ocean health. A real-time, nationally centralized system for reporting marine mammal disease data is needed to be able to understand how marine mammal diseases are changing with ecosystem changes, and before these animals can truly be considered 'sentinels of ocean health'.

Reproductive outcome and survival of common bottlenose dolphins sampled in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit bays, sounds and estuaries across the Gulf of Mexico. Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, studies were initiated to assess potential effects on these ecologically important apex predators. A previous study reported disease conditions, including lung disease and impaired stress response, for 32 dolphins that were temporarily captured and given health assessments in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Ten of the sampled dolphins were determined to be pregnant, with expected due dates the following spring or summer. Here, we report findings after 47 months of follow-up monitoring of those sampled dolphins. Only 20% (95% CI: 2.50-55.6%) of the pregnant dolphins produced viable calves, as compared with a previously reported pregnancy success rate of 83% in a reference population. Fifty-seven per cent of pregnant females that did not successfully produce a calf had been previously diagnosed with moderate-severe lung disease. In addition, the estimated annual survival rate of the sampled cohort was low (86.8%, 95% CI: 80.0-92.7%) as compared with survival rates of 95.1% and 96.2% from two other previously studied bottlenose dolphin populations. Our findings confirm low reproductive success and high mortality in dolphins from a heavily oiled estuary when compared with other populations. Follow-up studies are needed to better understand the potential recovery of dolphins in Barataria Bay and, by extension, other Gulf coastal regions impacted by the spill.

Microarray applications to understand the impact of exposure to environmental contaminants in wild dolphins (Tursiops truncatus).

It is increasingly common to monitor the marine environment and establish geographic trends of environmental contamination by measuring contaminant levels in animals from higher trophic levels. The health of an ecosystem is largely reflected in the health of its inhabitants. As an apex predator, the common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) can reflect the health of near shore marine ecosystems, and reflect coastal threats that pose risk to human health, such as legacy contaminants or marine toxins, e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and brevetoxins. Major advances in the understanding of dolphin biology and the unique adaptations of these animals in response to the marine environment are being made as a result of the development of cell-lines for use in in vitro experiments, the production of monoclonal antibodies to recognize dolphin proteins, the development of dolphin DNA microarrays to measure global gene expression and the sequencing of the dolphin genome. These advances may play a central role in understanding the complex and specialized biology of the dolphin with regard to how this species responds to an array of environmental insults. This work presents the creation, characterization and application of a new molecular tool to better understand the complex and unique biology of the common bottlenose dolphin and its response to environmental stress and infection. A dolphin oligo microarray representing 24,418 unigene sequences was developed and used to analyze blood samples collected from 69 dolphins during capture-release health assessments at five geographic locations (Beaufort, NC, Sarasota Bay, FL, Saint Joseph Bay, FL, Sapelo Island, GA and Brunswick, GA). The microarray was validated and tested for its ability to: 1) distinguish male from female dolphins; 2) differentiate dolphins inhabiting different geographic locations (Atlantic coasts vs the Gulf of Mexico); and 3) study in detail dolphins resident in one site, the Georgia coast, known to be heavily contaminated by Aroclor 1268, an uncommon polychlorinated (PCB) mixture. The microarray was able to distinguish dolphins by sex, geographic location, and corroborate previously published health irregularities for the Georgia dolphins. Genes involved in xenobiotic metabolism, development/differentiation and oncogenic pathways were found to be differentially expressed in GA dolphins. The report bridges the advancements in dolphin genome sequencing to the first step towards providing a cost-effective means to screen for indicators of chemical toxin exposure as well as disease status in top level predators.

Phocine distemper virus: current knowledge and future directions.

Phocine distemper virus (PDV) was first recognized in 1988 following a massive epidemic in harbor and grey seals in north-western Europe. Since then, the epidemiology of infection in North Atlantic and Arctic pinnipeds has been investigated. In the western North Atlantic endemic infection in harp and grey seals predates the European epidemic, with relatively small, localized mortality events occurring primarily in harbor seals. By contrast, PDV seems not to have become established in European harbor seals following the 1988 epidemic and a second event of similar magnitude and extent occurred in 2002. PDV is a distinct species within the Morbillivirus genus with minor sequence variation between outbreaks over time. There is now mounting evidence of PDV-like viruses in the North Pacific/Western Arctic with serological and molecular evidence of infection in pinnipeds and sea otters. However, despite the absence of associated mortality in the region, there is concern that the virus may infect the large Pacific harbor seal and northern elephant seal populations or the endangered Hawaiian monk seals. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on PDV with particular focus on developments in diagnostics, pathogenesis, immune response, vaccine development, phylogenetics and modeling over the past 20 years.

Cetacean morbillivirus: current knowledge and future directions.

We review the molecular and epidemiological characteristics of cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV) and the diagnosis and pathogenesis of associated disease, with six different strains detected in cetaceans worldwide. CeMV has caused epidemics with high mortality in odontocetes in Europe, the USA and Australia. It represents a distinct species within the Morbillivirus genus. Although most CeMV strains are phylogenetically closely related, recent data indicate that morbilliviruses recovered from Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus), from Western Australia, and a Guiana dolphin (Sotalia guianensis), from Brazil, are divergent. The signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (SLAM) cell receptor for CeMV has been characterized in cetaceans. It shares higher amino acid identity with the ruminant SLAM than with the receptors of carnivores or humans, reflecting the evolutionary history of these mammalian taxa. In Delphinidae, three amino acid substitutions may result in a higher affinity for the virus. Infection is diagnosed by histology, immunohistochemistry, virus isolation, RT-PCR, and serology. Classical CeMV-associated lesions include bronchointerstitial pneumonia, encephalitis, syncytia, and lymphoid depletion associated with immunosuppression. Cetaceans that survive the acute disease may develop fatal secondary infections and chronic encephalitis. Endemically infected, gregarious odontocetes probably serve as reservoirs and vectors. Transmission likely occurs through the inhalation of aerosolized virus but mother to fetus transmission was also reported.

Review of historical unusual mortality events (UMEs) in the Gulf of Mexico (1990-2009): providing context for the multi-year northern Gulf of Mexico cetacean UME declared in 2010.

An unusual mortality event (UME) was declared for cetaceans in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) for Franklin County, Florida, west through Louisiana, USA, beginning in February 2010 and was ongoing as of September 2014. The 'Deepwater Horizon' (DWH) oil spill began on 20 April 2010 in the GoM, raising questions regarding the potential role of the oil spill in the UME. The present study reviews cetacean mortality events that occurred in the GoM prior to 2010 (n = 11), including causes, durations, and some specific test results, to provide a historical context for the current event. The average duration of GoM cetacean UMEs prior to 2010 was 6 mo, and the longest was 17 mo (2005-2006). The highest number of cetacean mortalities recorded during a previous GoM event was 344 (in 1990). In most previous events, dolphin morbillivirus or brevetoxicosis was confirmed or suspected as a causal factor. In contrast, the current northern GoM UME has lasted more than 48 mo and has had more than 1000 reported mortalities within the currently defined spatial and temporal boundaries of the event. Initial results from the current UME do not support either morbillivirus or brevetoxin as primary causes of this event. This review is the first summary of cetacean UMEs in the GoM and provides evidence that the most common causes of previous UMEs are unlikely to be associated with the current UME.

Machine learning approaches to investigate the impact of PCBs on the transcriptome of the common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus).

As top-level predators, common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) are particularly sensitive to chemical and biological contaminants that accumulate and biomagnify in the marine food chain. This work investigates the potential use of microarray technology and gene expression profile analysis to screen common bottlenose dolphins for exposure to environmental contaminants through the immunological and/or endocrine perturbations associated with these agents. A dolphin microarray representing 24,418 unigene sequences was used to analyze blood samples collected from 47 dolphins during capture-release health assessments from five different US coastal locations (Beaufort, NC, Sarasota Bay, FL, Saint Joseph Bay, FL, Sapelo Island, GA and Brunswick, GA). Organohalogen contaminants including pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners were determined in blubber biopsy samples from the same animals. A subset of samples (n = 10, males; n = 8, females) with the highest and the lowest measured values of PCBs in their blubber was used as strata to determine the differential gene expression of the exposure extremes through machine learning classification algorithms. A set of genes associated primarily with nuclear and DNA stability, cell division and apoptosis regulation, intra- and extra-cellular traffic, and immune response activation was selected by the algorithm for identifying the two exposure extremes. In order to test the hypothesis that these gene expression patterns reflect PCB exposure, we next investigated the blood transcriptomes of the remaining dolphin samples using machine-learning approaches, including K-nn and Support Vector Machines classifiers. Using the derived gene sets, the algorithms worked very well (100% success rate) at classifying dolphins according to the contaminant load accumulated in their blubber. These results suggest that gene expression profile analysis may provide a valuable means to screen for indicators of chemical exposure.